How We Analyse Football Matches: Our Data-Driven Methodology

Our Process, Explained

At FCResults, every tip goes through a multi-layer research process before it ever reaches a subscriber's inbox. Here's exactly how we do it.

Step 1: League & Match Selection

We don't cover every match. We focus on leagues where data is rich, referee patterns are consistent, and team form is trackable. This means La Liga, Bundesliga, Premier League, Serie A, Ligue 1, and a handful of South American leagues where we've built reliable baselines.

Step 2: Form & Context

We look at the last 6-8 matches for each team — not just results, but shots on target, xG (expected goals), defensive lines, and home/away splits. Context matters: a "loss" after 10 men for 70 minutes is not the same as a standard defeat.

Step 3: Market Selection

We don't force a market onto a match. If the value isn't there, we don't publish. Our primary markets are BTTS, Asian Handicaps, and Over/Under lines where we've found the most consistent edge.

Step 4: Odds Validation

Once a tip is identified, we check the fair odds using our model and compare against Bet365 and Pinnacle. We only publish when we find at least a 5-8% positive expected value edge.

The Result

Fewer tips. Better tips. That's the philosophy.